HSBC仲要跌幾多

由一眾散戶組成血肉長城,守住港幣55元價位,昨天終於守不住,看來還不知HSBC還可能跌到什麼價位,恐怕有不少人,因為一些衍生工具要高價硬接貨。

HSBC近日之所以跌,大家看Citigroup和Bank of America股價便知什麼事,現時Citigroup(NYSE:C)價在1.95美元水位,近乎垃圾股,而Bank of America(NYSE:BAC)稍好,在3.2水位,這兩間銀行被全面國有化的機會率相當高。那與Citigroup一樣,手持大量衍生工具的HSBC會是什麼光景,實在天曉得,儘管HSBC其他業務質素,比賣了Smith Barney的Citigroup好太多。

在各大行爭著唱淡HSBC情況下,三月業績公布是最後觀察機會,如果是好業績,股價炒上後便要離場,不要再買,因為這一役全球金融業元氣大傷,投資HSBC不比投資PCCW來得好。如果業績不好,就要小心一點,不要恐慌性要錢不要貨亂離場,那會累自已被踐踏而死。

但估HSBC是底去到那裡是沒意義,因為連美國政府都不知Citigroup、Bank of America以至三大汽車廠的潭有多深時,你認為你會知HSBC個底去到哪裡。

12 thoughts on “HSBC仲要跌幾多

  1. Again, with all due respect Martin, this is baseless scaremongering of the highest order. What makes you think HSBC, which isn’t even government owned, would do worse than those already controlled by governments?

    Price is what you pay, value is what you get. No bull market runs forever, but neither does a depression, and this is a depression that only happens once every 50-60 years. I admit I am a stubborn optimist – for the VERY long term – meaning over 5-10 years. I don’t care where the price goes before that.

    Stop looking at price, which is a subjective meter of whether companies are good or bad, and look at cashflow of dividends over the past years as a better indicator instead, and how competent and honest the execs are. One thing is for certain, it will not go to $0.

    JP Morgan just shot themselves in the foot by admitting they didn’t really know what’s going on when making their analysis.

    And it is totally unfair for you to compare the execs in HSBC, who are rather conservative in their approach, with shameless idiots like Richard Li, who blatantly only cared about himself and his cronies to create the mess that is PCCW.

    Even before Li took over, HKT had lost its competitive advantage with the opening up of the telecom market. HSBC was actively opening up new markets in South America and Asia during this time.

  2. 留意最近HSBC的業務舉動,佢地行動好快,如即時加一些服務費用便可見一斑。知道這些服務費用好似少少地,其實以HSBC這間超大型行來說,真係聚沙成塔,愛爾蘭佬做生意深思細密。呢次金融風暴傷到佢地入肉,但以佢地management的功力,仍然可過關,但最衰是英國政府,某程度佢是迫死HSBC和渣打這類不靠政府的優質銀行,變相是劣幣驅逐良幣的情況在這次英國金融危機上出現。
    如果我係HSBC股東,真係恨白高敦入骨。
    RBS同萊斯股價,真係地低泥,但因為佢有政府支持,仍然可以繼續營運。但HSBC這些堅持不接受政府協助,卻被大摩班友係咁質低。
    但以大摩奸狗技巧,它陰地大量持貨,然後才挾返上去都會,因為佢唔係冇試過這些技倆。

  3. 五十五元的血肉長城…真的壯觀…

    我記得HSBC升到一百三十元時,我和同事笑說我一百元會買,他們說永遠不可能會發生,最後匯豐升到一百五十元,個個說我是傻子…

    到匯豐跌至一百元時,我們他們說七十元我會考慮買,他們說,如果真的到七十元,香港會非常「唔掂」,結果,原來跌到七十元才只是幾天的事。

    當然,我沒有買。

    到七十元時,我就說匯豐會跌至五十元,同事認為我黑心,說如果匯豐五十元,香港就會陸沉了。

    結果…

  4. 為公平起見, 強烈建議世澤兄下次再寫匯豐的時候, 表明自己和匯豐的關係, e.g.

    – 有沒有存款?
    – 是否採用匯豐的MPF服務?
    – 與匯豐有沒有業務往來, 包括信用卡, 貸款等?
    – 有沒有持有匯豐控股(00005.HK)股份及/或與之有關的期權, 衍生工具或相關證券? (雖然我覺得機會極小) 有者又以好倉還是淡倉為主?

    GM, Chrysler (甚至 Ford)滅亡只是時間問題, 這是他們咎由自取, 勞資雙方(甚至民主黨本身)都有責任; 英國, 美國的銀行最終要由政府接管, 是英美兩國都愛靠借渡日, 又要將自己的揮霍用各式各樣的金融產品推給世人承擔. 把摩天大廈建在浮沙上, 總有 game over的一天.

    匯豐也是如花旗, RBS那些財棍嗎? 不覺得是.

    再說, 就算確如某”報告”所說它要見 $42, 但我會認為是 ELN搞的鬼. 上次 $75, 昨天 $54.8, 兩次 day low都是收示後的對盤時段才見到.

    另外要留意的是, 匯豐的糧倉有多大, 有多滿? 大家都只是拿著它公開的數據來猜. (注意: 它亦有將自己旗下的 SIV放到自己的 Balance sheet上) 但問題是靠估, 真係無辛苦?

    我也覺得這種說法有點 426, 不過, 有錯嗎?

    說了一大堆廢話, 想說的是: 沒錯, 匯控要見$42 甚至 $40, 一點都不會奇怪. 但如果真的要見的話, 我覺得會是買入後持有多於趁反彈鬆手的機會.

    又, 另一個很簡單的選擇: 如果有一筆錢不想呆在銀行要買股票的話, 你會選一間歷盡風雨仍能爬起來的銀行, 靠衍生致富的財棍, 還是阿爺一聲令下, 奴才不敢不借的中資銀行?

    利益申報: 本人現正在匯豐有戶口, MPF亦以匯豐為代理

  5. “但以大摩奸狗技巧,它陰地大量持貨,然後才挾返上去都會,因為佢唔係冇試過這些技倆。”

    不單大摩,其他大行也可能會這樣做,香港是著名提款機,質低HSBC,可質低恒指,另外再Short恆指,又 HSBC Put輪,簡直Perfect。質完香港,再質英國,然後再質美國…

    據本人所知,HSBC應該是由蘇格蘭人創立的。其管理層亦是蘇格蘭人。

  6. 我先利益申報,小弟的存款、MPF在HSBC,小弟過往推薦客人做擔保書等業務銀行,都係HSBC,由業務到財產管理,小弟比誰都不想HSBC出事。當然,小弟一股HSBC都無買,亦不做衍生工具交易。

    渣打依家唔駛靠英國政府,一方面,渣打在業務上比HSBC保守好多,查實渣打我一向都不擔心,另一方面,己故大馬富豪邱德拔手上的股票,轉晒俾淡馬錫控股,根本渣打係新加坡政府旗下銀行,又駛乜向英國政府要呢。

    小心做生意原則係,永遠做最壞準備。

  7. > 又, 另一個很簡單的選擇: 如果有一筆錢不想呆在銀行要買股票的話, 你會選一間歷盡風雨仍能爬起來的銀行, 靠衍生致富的財棍, 還是阿爺一聲令下, 奴才不敢不借的中資銀行?

    這是甚麼邏輯?為甚麼不想將錢放在銀行就一定要買股票?為甚麼買股票就一定是要買銀行股?

    靠屎忽還是靠腎上腺素來決定投資的?

  8. Tom Sowell, the renowned economist had this to say yesterday in his article of “Upside Down Economics”.

    “From television specials to newspaper editorials, the media are pushing the idea that current economic problems were caused by the market and that only the government can rescue us.

    What was lacking in the housing market, they say, was government regulation of the market’s “greed.” That makes great moral melodrama, but it turns the facts upside down.

    It was precisely government intervention which turned a thriving industry into a basket case.

    An economist specializing in financial markets gave a glimpse of the history of housing markets when he said: “Lending money to American homebuyers had been one of the least risky and most profitable businesses a bank could engage in for nearly a century.”

    That was what the market was like before the government intervened. Like many government interventions, it began small and later grew. ”

    It therefore follows that anyone that can survive the Government intervention today which is a trap of the Socialist Left, will be the winner tomorrow.

  9. 估hsbc插到邊做乜丫,今時今日,就算話我知聽日hsbc會執,甚至話我知個金融制度其實崩潰緊,全世界玩完,我都覺得唔出奇。

  10. 本人是今日才看到的資料.摘錄如下讓各位友好研究”經濟衰退”背後是否有大陰謀?
    (簡譯)2008九月美國大選前美國衆多大銀行發生了兩小時之內電子轉帳5500億美元的大擠提.當時若非有關當局下令停止交易,估計24小時內美國銀行業會被擠提掉5萬5千億,足令世界金融全面癱瘓.
    “Then, in September 2008 a strange one to two hour electronic run on US banks to the tune of $550 billion was affected before authorities were able to put a stop to it. One Democrat—Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania said that if authorities had not closed the banks, $5 ½ TRILLION would have been withdrawn from US banks, which would have caused the collapse of the US and within 24 hours the collapse of the world’s economic system. There are certainly those within our own government who know who and what were the perpetrators. But, no one is talking. “

  11. Longhair, you think as I do as well. 🙂

    I too think Morgan Stanley is just talking bullshit, they’re just pushing HSBC down to their target price of $52 before THEY themselves come in and reap the profits. I wonder who was it that was saying HSBC can go up to $160 “in the near future” 18 months ago?

    Let me declare my interests as well: My account is with HSBC, so is my MPF, and I have more than one lot of HSBC, but I will wait until March 2nd before I make my next move. I never touch rubbish like derivatives, BTW. But I’m hardly losing any sleep at all.

    If the annual report is better than expected, and the price goes below $52, then I’ll join the 血肉長城 as well. Go ahead, laugh at me. :p

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