賭政府破產?

Reuters: UPDATE 1-U.S. Treasury CDS hit record wides-CMA DataVision

FT blog: Investors place their bets on a UK default

Bloomberg: U.K. Government Credit-Default Swaps Rise to Record, CMA Says
請看以下英國CDS的走勢圖

正如郎咸平所問,如果政府國有化銀行搞到連政府都破產,咁呢個世界會點?似乎人人為救市叫好時,無諗過問題可以膠到呢個地步。

我諗緊如果美國「破產」,中國會唔會變咗歷史上的熱那亞商人,一班被西班牙皇室搞到雞毛鴨血的苦主。

Updated at 16:12GMT, 25 November 2008 Reuters: UPDATE 1-U.S. default risk jumps on govt loan purchase plan

聯儲局的新救市計劃,似乎推高美國的CDS,會不會越救市越大劑,大家諗吓。

8 thoughts on “賭政府破產?

  1. 美國破產,其實即係全球都破產,因為骨牌效應,基本上全世界人都唔駛玩。

  2. 所以唔理接唔接受都好,呢鋪華爾街班膠人,同民主黨班膠人玩出嚟的蘇州屎,係全世界要埋單。

    成班友飲鳩止渴都唔知。

  3. 大家應該密切留意美國T-Bill, T-Notes等的CDS,如果CDS超越三位數,應該考慮採取適當行動,因為美金出事,港紙一樣會好膠。

  4. Re: Martin

    “大家應該密切留意美國T-Bill, T-Notes等的CDS,如果CDS超越三位數,應該考慮採取適當行動”

    一般小市民點會知? CDS並非Yahoo Finance有得睇之內容。

  5. 九千個茶煲九個蓋, 點夠? 一句到尾, 貪字得個貧。

    ISDA 市場調查: Notional amount in billion of USD
    http://www.isda.org/statistics/pdf/ISDA-Market-Survey-historical-data.pdf

    2001 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 631.50
    2001 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 918.87
    2002 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 1563.48
    2002 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 2191.57
    2003 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 2687.91
    2003 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 3779.40
    2004 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 5441.86
    2004 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 8422.26
    2005 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 12429.88
    2005 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 17096.14
    2006 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 26005.72
    2006 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 34422.80
    2007 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 45464.50
    2007 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: 62173.20
    2008 Jun: CDS: Outstanding: 54611.82
    2008 Dec: CDS: Outstanding: Coming Soon….

    2001 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 57305.00
    2001 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 69207.30
    2002 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 82737.03
    2002 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 101318.49
    2003 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 123899.63
    2003 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 142306.92
    2004 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 164491.72
    2004 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 183583.27
    2005 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 201413.54
    2005 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 213194.58
    2006 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 250829.99
    2006 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 285728.14
    2007 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 347093.64
    2007 Dec: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 382302.71
    2008 Jun: IR & Currency: Outstanding: 464694.95
    2008 Dec: IR & Currency: Coming Soon….

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