麥凱恩看來大勢已去

由現時點票結果來看,麥凱恩想贏總統真的要等下世。

在那幾個公認的battlefield states中,照一貫看點票的經驗,除了印第安納(Indiana, IN)是麥凱恩看來贏面較大,賓夕凡尼亞(Pennysylvania, PA)同俄亥俄(Ohio, OH)奧巴馬竟然贏到開巷,之後佛羅里達(Florida, FL)同埋北卡萊羅納(North Carolina, NC),奧巴馬都佔統計學上的優勢,維珍尼亞(Virginia, VA,我絕對唔會用新華社譯名弗吉尼亞,好核突)仲出現奧巴馬反先,咁仲有乜好講。

特別佛羅里達州,麥凱恩這次失血好慘,雖然大部分郡(County),都標註是麥凱恩勝,問題出在幾個城市郡,在Miami, Tampa, Orlando這些人口密集的城市所轄的郡,都是奧巴馬佔優,而且現時仍然點算都是這幾個城市附近的郡,麥凱恩要扭轉敗局很困難。

當然佛羅里達是一個好特別的州份,城市和郊區住著好唔同的人,而好多exit poll都顯示,這次黑人一面倒投向奧巴馬,咁麥凱恩呢鋪真係要贏好有難度。

(小弟再聲明,小弟對美國政治不是十分熟,如有講錯,請見諒。)

16 thoughts on “麥凱恩看來大勢已去

  1. Well, Obama has pretty much taken Virginia and Pennsylvania, and he got the West Coast as usual. So everyone is now calling Obama the President-Elect.

  2. 無計,連Indiana、Ohio同Virginia都輸咗俾奧巴馬,太平洋五個大州,四個幾乎係民主黨的(加州、夏威夷、華盛頓和俄勒岡),唔輸就假。

  3. 睇來美國邁向種族平等已經踏出最後一步。美國呢一小步,係全球有色人種嘅一大步!奧巴馬萬歲!!

  4. 之前一路 McCain 都係響佛羅里達領先,直到金融海嘯一爆,就乜都死晒…

    其實唔止佛羅里達…有好幾個州都係類似情形。始終美式右派嗰套 “deregulation” 同盲目樂觀,太明顯係爆煲主因之一,跳落太平洋都洗唔清。

    某程度上,McCain 已經算輸得唔太難睇…三幾個月之前佢個 campaign 前首席經濟顧問 Phil Gramm,仲大言不慚到話 lower tax-brackets 堆基層係 “losers” (條友冇做參議員之後,呢幾年仲好似唔知係瑞銀定 JP 啲高層),Obama 陣營呢期冇大賣廣告拎佢出嚟做「為富不仁」嘅人辦(同肥張之流真係冇分別),都真係非常離出奇…

    計實 McCain 本人經濟方面往績不多,但都唔係好右嗰隻…可惜共和黨內三大支柱中,又以班費利民教徒為主力,國防同社會右派都係畀人當係「有事鍾無艷」,撞著今次咁情形,McCain 連個 campaign 都畀班經濟盲右入侵埋,場仗仲點會有得打?

  5. 咳咳,我一直認為美式右派的deregulation近乎無政府主義,唔係太右派。因為市場要有效率運作,一定的regulation係必要。

    即係咁講,我地反對政府落場玩,但政府做公正呢個角色,一定要做得好。

  6. 其實係0架…我成日覺得好得意嘅就係,即使係左派,都好少人會省嗰班 libertarians 係無政府。響美國,啲人怕畀人叫 socialists 多過 anarchists…

    實際上政治哲學中係有一派 libertarian 叫做 “anarcho-libertarianism”;不過逐隻字母搬齊出嚟直斥其非嘅人真係好少。可能因為美國個 root 係開荒殖民嘅國家,文化上根本就有多少拓荒者無皇管心態,於是就冇呢種 awareness…

  7. To Perennial_Loser:

    因為班左派自己都成棚係無政府主義分子,大家衰埋差唔多嘅嘢,邊有得講。

  8. 小弟有d不安, 太似我剛去美國時新選出的民主黨籍的黑人紐約市長丁勤時-David Dinkins 的氣氛。
    1. 承諾所謂的平等, 原來是黑人優先. 招聘市政府公職幾乎全黑。
    2. 放任Crown Heights、Bedford-Stuyvesant 和 Harlem 區的暴民(如同特X正苦放縱土共暴徒政策一樣), 結果發生三次種族衝突: 1. 黑黃(韓裔in East New York) 2. 黑猶(Crown Heights) 3. 黑西(Spanish Harlem)。最令我印象深刻是他身為市長居然忽略受傷警員而去探望在哈林暴亂中被警棍打傷的黑人暴徒, 還發言評擊警員使用暴力,隔天警隊忍無可忍在市政府廣場示威抗議市長言論!
    3. 奉公守法的有色人種(佔市總人口70%以上)在1994年倒戈相向轉投共和黨籍的朱利安尼.
    在美國生活有幾個感受: 1. 黑人比白人更有種族偏見, 更歧視亞裔人。2. 大部份冠上”少數族裔-Minorities”一詞的工會、團體 ,其實已被黑人獨家專利了。3. 感覺最麻煩的一類人是福音派的新教原教旨主義份子, 乜都要管、乜都反對!
    我認為對美國人最有利的應該是Hillary Clinton + John McCain, 只可惜歷史的巨輪正在朝另一個方向前進。

  9. Louis – I guess we just have to wait and see. I will not be hateful and resentful like the liberal-left did after the 2000 and the 2004 defeats.

    On the other hand, the Republicans will undoubtedly be on the drawing board tomorrow morning plotting a comeback in 2010. If he shows the kind of favoritism (I don’t want to call it racism) typical of black politics, there will be buyers remorse come 2010 and it will not be easy for him to win the white independent votes again in 2012 which are instrumental to his historic victory today.

  10. 黃兄:
    典型例子:Weathermen Underground…
    XD

    Louis & Alvin:
    奧巴馬最大問題係睇佢唔透 – 論背景,黑人社區組織出身,好難唔令人憂慮;但反過嚟佢條友仔成日擺出嚟個款又好似好文明講道理咁,而且背後金主都有唔少地產金融界嘅人,所以好難睇得透佢種族政策會點行。

    其實所謂少數族裔問題,我會咁睇:
    (a) 後來嘅拉美裔移民之類(中國人緊隨其後),根本就係縱壞晒,入咗籍又唔融入人哋社會,自成一國,仲下下為原生地利益效勞,近乎賣國,理應嚴限嚴管。
    (b) 至於非裔人,本來我自己都係好講究公平嘅人,但多年落嚟嘅 affirmative action,非裔社群仲係人心無厭足,真係令人有所保留。如果學某啲左派成日講,猶太人/以色列濫用受害者資格迫害某啲人,咁美國嘅非裔人好快就會步猶太人後塵,理應等量齊觀…

  11. 又:其實班教徒都唔完全係一無可取 – 打擊犯罪、重視家庭價值,同埋踴躍參與慈善活動,都係幫咗社會好多。美國啲 libertarianism 太離譜,冇呢啲人幫下手,一早已經變咗阿瑪遜森林喇。

    至於反墮胎,亦唔完全係冇道理 – 即使我個人都贊成女性有所謂嘅身體自治權。始終未出世嘅胎,當唔當得係「人」,中間條線太含糊,企硬是但一邊都唔係好得。

    同性戀方面,班人係就係 bigot 0架喇…但反過嚟睇,同性戀者權益發展方面有啲嘢係 debatable。例如話同性戀神職人員呢啲,真係未必睇到有咩理由一定要將涉及嘅權利延伸至同性戀者 – 左派多數係 secularists,但我從來唔見班人花幾多工夫去批判回教或其他宗教各式嘅不公行為。厚此薄彼,唔見得公道。至於領養兒童同結婚,又係無可無不可之間,話有問題又得 (現行婚姻-家庭制度點搞?多夫多妻制又如何?同性戀行為上會唔會有人係模仿而唔係天生,而且應該容許後天模仿?etc.),話冇問題又得 (佢哋係人,就有權結婚領養,period),唔可以一刀切話班教徒係 bigots 就當佢哋嘅論點冇到。

    講到 stem cell research 就仲麻煩 – 好老實講,科學求真非求德,Pandora Box 一打開會搞出咩事冇人知。宜家久唔久打開 Yahoo,不時都見有報導話建議搞咩鬼「士啤人」for 移植器官用之類嘅嘢。咁嘅諗頭都有人諗得出,班教徒反對,都算係 valid concern。

    班耶青/耶漿/耶膠最乞人憎呢,就係態度惡劣,成日面紅耳赤大呼小叫,唔係野蠻都畀人當係啦。但撇開部分白癡 (eg. intelligent design) 同 bigotry (eg. 反同) 嘢,冇咗呢班人,衰啲講句,班無法無天無皇管嘅喪友就真係乜都夠膽死做,不堪設想0架喇。

  12. 我支持共和黨的
    我認為共和黨雖輸……..
    但應好好利用呢4年時間養精蓄銳…….
    同埋重整新保守主義運動…..同埋給佩林進行多d”訓練”

  13. Perennial_Loser – no argument about Obama’s shady background. From ACORN to Jeremiah Wright, the list is alarming. But even if he really is what we fear he could be, I don’t think he will show his true colors because he has an election in 2012 to worry about. He cannot afford to alienate the white moderate independents that are so instrumental to his victory. They are the reasons he carries Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

    Of course, Obama could still fail the test that Joe Biden had promised us. And if the economy continues to go south, he could very well be the second coming of Jimmy Carter. Or worse.

    Just saw Jesse Jackson crying on TV. What a phony.

  14. Alvin:

    You’re right though; and given the enormous tasks he will be facing regarding the economy and foreign relations, he may set aside those social issues for the time being. Indeed, if he attempts to go big with immigration, racial and cultural issues, there may be a real big backlash – and the different races and cultural communities will surely be at each other’s throat in that case.

    And I have reservations about Biden – this guy is very much exaggerated as a “foreign policy expert”, despite 36-years of Senate experience under his belt. Given the existing atmosphere, if the Dem team goes awry with foreign policy, it should be definitely much worse than the Carter days – the “peace” voice has never been stronger and, worse still, they have a good deal of realists as accomplices.

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