美國大選

本來在美國政治上,小弟不敢班門弄斧,因為在朋友中,長期在華府打躉的HKExpatriate,或者曾經在國會山莊食過夜粥的李兆富,以至這裡不少美國讀者,都比我有資格講美國大選好多,如果小弟有什麼講錯,請見諒。

坦白說,雖然我個人傾向支持麥凱恩,而不是永遠有口號,但內容欠奉的奧巴馬,但無可否認的是,麥凱恩明顯大勢已去,這場仗很難打。

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html

CNN的網站有個叫Poll of Polls功能,我認為這項功能頗為有用,因為綜合了幾個民調,Sampling rate大增情況,這種Poll of Polls數據頗有意義,而在幾個關鍵州份

俄亥俄(Ohio, OH):奧巴馬49%,麥凱恩45%,未決定6%
維珍尼亞(Virginia, VA):奧巴馬50%,麥凱恩45%,未決定5%
賓夕凡尼亞(Pennsylvania, PA):奧巴馬51%,麥凱恩43%,未決定6%
佛羅里達(Florida, FL):奧巴馬48%,麥凱恩46%,未決定6%

除了佛羅里達27張票有機會扭轉乾坤,俄亥俄、維珍尼亞、賓夕凡尼亞三個州,維珍尼亞和賓夕凡尼亞都明顯是奧巴馬的,而俄亥俄州,按統計學的推算,麥凱恩要贏都要極大的努力,再加上內華達和亞利桑拿州都明顯是奧巴馬的,只有密蘇里州是平手戰,麥凱恩要學杜魯門般打出逆轉一戰,恐怕難度極大。

看來要迎接美國有史以來最左翼的政府,是無可避免。

16 thoughts on “美國大選

  1. I have heard that Barack Obama is very sympathetic to the People’s Rep of China (due to the natural modern Western liberal-left’s solidarity with a state opposing the US, no matter how non-leftist that state’s internal ideology could be). Do you think he will prop up Beijing if the PRC goes under due to popular unrest and also tell Beijing to go ahead to found the Taiwan SAR of the People’s Republic of China?

  2. 奧巴馬如何親中都好,都不一定會支持台灣特區出現,因為美國外交國策,基本上好難改。

    況且民主黨是傾向貿易保護主義,如果美國失業率上升,美中會在貿易問題上擦槍走火。

  3. I think what I worry is that, in the case when “中國未來亂局的連鎖反應” as you or Lam Kay predicted, a President Obama will use any means possible to keep the People’s Republic of China survive in power because he wants the PRC to prosper (not out of keeping global stability), while a President McCain will probably have let events happen to their natural courses and we will see a post-Communist China emerging. I have seen the types that are fervent supporters of Obama, the hard liberal-left circles, in the West generally give cold shoulders to Chinese democracy movement leaders and unwilling to help the Falun Gong practitioners.

  4. 對於奧巴馬的對華政策﹐我感到憂慮的原因係因為奧巴馬身邊的大部份亞洲事務顧問只專長於日韓以及東南亞地區事務﹐這批顧問對於中國事務的熟悉程度可以話非常有限﹐不過如果奧巴馬上台﹐他應該會向外招聘有能之士幫手﹐所以到目前為止﹐只可以採取觀望態度。當然﹐對華貿易以及人民幣匯率絕對係奧巴馬政府對華政策的頭號agenda。其實﹐美中關係就好似一個棋局﹐無論貿易、人權、西藏、新疆等
    議題﹐都只是一隻棋而已。至於“香港民主化問題”﹐更加係美中關係這個棋局內
    最小的一隻棋﹗

    至於有人話民主黨除了有機會獲得白宮的控制權之外﹐也可以獲得國會參眾兩院比
    依家更多的議席數目﹐因此可能出現“一黨獨大”之勢﹐我就覺得未必﹗美國的政
    黨並非鐵板一塊﹐並無亞洲地區所稱的“黨紀”﹐議員都需要面對自己選區內的選
    民訴求﹐加上政治利益係非常現實的事情﹐民主黨內的派系山頭林立﹐所以國會山莊絕對唔會淪為奧巴馬的橡皮圖章﹗

    今次選舉我比較關注共和黨在維吉尼亞州費爾法克斯縣(Farifax, VA)選區的國會眾
    議員沃爾夫(Frank Wolf)能否連任。沃爾夫長期關注中國人權與宗教自由問題﹐與北京當局有牙齒印﹐也是在今年中曾經爆出美國國會議員辦公室電腦被據稱來自中國黑客入侵的兩名眾議員之一。如果沃爾夫落選﹐美國國會內將會失去一支瞄準中國人權的重炮﹗

  5. Joel:

    Your worry is reasonable; while Obama himself may not be really sympathetic to the PRC, the “internationalists” in his camp are bad enough to scare the shit out of everybody – deferring everything to the UN, only carrot but no stick, etc.

    To make things worse, the “paleo-realists” of the Kissinger mode are going to be their accomplices this time round – from the “opening” of the PRC to the 80’s mujahideen movement and the Iran-Iraq War, these “realists” were only able to produce shit – playing the leverage game with no exit strategy at all. Of this camp, the mere name of Holbrooke is frightening enough – and there are many more in the State Department. Scary, eh?

    “Internationalists” plus “paleo-realists”…look out for a much-weakened US military machine, useless “jaw-jaw”s, and appeasement of equally big bad bullies like the PRC and Russia which…won’t make the US name any more favourable than it is right now either.

    I can only hope that my take is utterly wrong…

  6. Joel, Nancy Pelosi is one of the leaders in the hard liberal-left circles and her views towards China and particularly Tibet should not be foreign to anyone following American politics.

    Perennial_Loser, I echo your worries. If Obama is elected (and you know I seriously hope not), the Obama presidency will be even weaker than the Carter administration. Radicals will celebrate victories in Iraq, Ahmadinutjob will become even more influential in the region, Russia will continue to bully the former Soviet republics (Ukraine, watch out), the economy will be driven into a depression with all the tax increases, and all Obama would do is point fingers at Bush and the conservative right which would undoubtedly dog him every step along the way.

  7. To Alvin,

    佩羅西今年在三藩市的國會選區當中受到“反戰母親”Cindy Sheehan以獨立候選身
    份挑戰﹐請問你點睇這場選戰。

    我個人當然不願意見到佩羅西落選﹐因為佩羅西絕對係中共的眼中釘﹗

  8. Alvin, I’m not from the States but from my involvement here in New Zealand politics, most people on the Left here (normally they are a shade to the left of even the US hardcore liberal-left and Bill Clinton would be considered centre-right here) like Labour or the Progressive or Alliance parties are very star stuck when it comes to China and is rather muted with regards to criticism towards PR China.

    The Green Party is the only leftist left in NZ that dare criticizing China, but even then most Chinese democracy activists and Falun Gong practitioners get cold shoulders from them. If you ask them really privately whether they support a regime change of China as a popular revolution from ordinary Chinese people, all you get is a no. In addition, they are like all talk, some symbolic actions, but no real policies that will hurt the Communist Chinese hard.

    But coming back to the US I believe a lot of people our age or younger (borderline Generation X-Y or Generation Y, those from 18 to 35) are simply too young to recall or care Jimmy Carter, June 4 in China, and the days when the Soviet Union was a menacing threat that would devour the world in any minute. Some EU and individual EU member states’ senior political and commentary circles have already disclosed privately they are really worried if Obama matches his rhetoric once in power.

    Unfortunately, I believe in this case probably we need 4 years to wake people up (and I suspect for the people in the San Francisco Bay Area, New York Upper West Side, or Seattle, never) that the big bad world is still here and pacifism and unilateral disarmament doesn’t mean you will have peace, but rather, more war. Or alternatively I predict Europe (either the EU as a whole or individual European states and the UK) will need to become more mature when it comes to defence and growing more muscular on military matters. And they will need to build up defence – fast – because for much of the Asia-Pacific region which is where a lot of power stakes games are, Europe is regarded as a giant paper tiger with no claw and influence.

    To end this in a more positive note though, I don’t think Iraq will simply fall into Iran or al qaeda hands though. Had Obama become the President in 2006 or even last year that would be the almost certain outcome, but the US military surge has removed much of this chance. I believe he will withdraw the US troops, but by that time Iraq will be strong enough to stand on its own and not to join Iran or whatever in causing troubles. Iran is another matter though, and I expect there will be a surprising military action from Russia and Iran, perhaps with Sudan and Libya, some former Soviet central Asian republics, and some other countries as accomplices as well, against Israel.

  9. 由於在三藩市內很多極左的自由派不滿佩羅西不支持在美國國會內彈劾布殊﹐所以這個Cindy Sheehan就乘機挑戰佩羅西﹐以宣泄她的兒子在伊拉克陣亡後對布殊政府的不滿。我雖然同情Cindy Sheehan﹐不過覺得她搵錯對像﹗

    如果佩羅西的選情出現意外落馬﹐對於在美國國內支持中國民主運動﹐以及支持西
    藏與新疆的團體來說﹐絕對係一場災難﹗

  10. HKExpatriate:

    My sympathies to Cindy Sheehan as a grieving mother, but she is a political joke. The liberal left used her as a pawn in 2005 but after they’d captured both houses of Congress in ’06, she should know that her 15-minutes of fame was over. And without the Democratic campaign machine, Sheehan would have a tough time beating a Republican candidate, not to mention a incumbent Democrat who also happens to be the Speaker of the House. I would be surprised if Sheehan can steal 15%-20% of the votes from Pelosi.

    I’m not a big fan of Nancy Pelosi’s leftist liberal agenda, but I respect and admire her continual tough stance against China.

  11. Joel,

    I agree with most of your points. Pelosi is probably an exception rather than norm in terms of liberal left’s touch stance against China, but given she is a leader of the liberal-left in the US, she can use her power to shape the liberal-left agenda her way.

    I definitely agree that the younger generation have no recollection of Jimmy Carter and the Soviet Union Evil Empire and have been spoon-fed by the liberal left media the notion that GWB is the cause of all things evil. An Obama presidency as a wake-up call may be the only answer but the ramifications are just too horrible to imagine. JFK was tough enough to stand up against the Soviet during the Cuban Missile Crisis; I’m convinced Obama would have failed a similar test, one “predicted” by Joe Biden.

    I have an uneasy feeling about Iraq. I’m wondering if the remaining insurgents are simply “hunkering down” and laying low for a while and quietly rebuilding with the help of Iran and Syria, knowing very well that if Obama wins, he will begin the pullout as soon as he gets a false sense of security. He will be in an awkward position if the majority of the US combat forces have withdrawn and likely deployed to Afghanistan and the insurgent activities begins dialing up the heat again. I don’t think the Iraqi security forces are motivated enough to battle the insurgents w/o US assistance, and it would be political disaster for Obama to order troops back in.

  12. Many political pundits agree that by now if you’re undecided, you’re either going to vote for McCain or you’re not going to vote at all. This election has quietly turned into a referendum on Obama. If it is correct, Virginia and Pennsylvania will become the keys to the White House.

    My gut feeling is that Florida, Indiana and Ohio will stay red by razor thin margin and Virginia will turn blue. Pennsylvania will ultimately decide the outcome. The Obama “bankrupt the coal industry” soundbite is a calculate move by the conservative-right to lure undecided voters in rural Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia, all of which are heavily vested in the coal industry.

  13. Let’s just say that one is going to have a very hard time finding a Republican in a Free Tibet rally. The Republicans, not the Democrats, are the ones that tried very hard to take away civil liberties in the US in the past several years. It is also the Republicans, not the Democrats, who generally represent the interests of the big corporations (Halliburton, anyone?), some of whom would very much like to do a lot of business with China. There’s no frigging way that I’m going to support the Republican party.

  14. On Cindy Sheehan:
    As far as I’m concerned, she’s something in the dustbin already. My few visits to HuffPo found that she had become the butt of joke of the netroots movement, at the very least – and if someone in the left gets trashed as such in HuffPo, you can tell how much prospect she has as a Congress election candidate.

    On China:
    As discussed before, too many Westerners are infected by the sort of “reverse Orientalism” and white-guilt that make them fall blindly and wholeheartedly for the “big cuddly panda”; and some of the best China hands (a.k.a. panda-huggers) going all out to speak on the PRC’s behalf makes it worse, of course (e.g. there’s an ex-Oz diplomat of the surname Clark having a column for a Japanese paper…I’ve seen this fellow telling Taiwan to suck it up many times; and Tom Plate of LA Times calling Taiwan “a spoiled little brat” is even more apparent an example).

    Now with Obama coming, the internationalists
    will for sure have their hands full giving handouts to all those Third World countries and the PRC has never quite been a concern to them; so that will leave the paleo-realists in charge of everything – again, the likes of Holbrooke who genuinely believe a strong and growing PRC is good for everybody…

  15. Wasted Dude:

    That’s very much a dilemma for China watchers: GOP or Dems?

    Indeed, from Claiborne Pell, the late Lantos to the still going Pelosi, there are more Dems who are active in China-related freedom/democracy/human rights movements. And it’s undeniable that it was Nixon (and Kissinger) who started with that “PRC opening” mess. Yet given the carrot-only internationalist outlook of the 21st century Dems, it’s also impossible to have high hopes on them doing anything concrete to press things further with the PRC – in case things happen with the PRC, the use of military power is a possibility. Are the doves of the doves willing and ready to give it a go in such a scenario? I’m extremely doubtful – now the Dem is a party of McGoverns, not FDRs and Trumans. Were the latter two live in this world, they might have been “Lieberman”ed/”Hitchens”ed long long ago.

    The bottom line: for some like me, the GOP which DARES to take action in times of urgency seems like a better bet, but its spotty track record may prove us wrong any second. The Dems seem to be more principled on human rights issues, but their (1) aversion to tough actions, (2) addiction to “peace” at present and (3) intimacy with “anti-imperialist forces” leave a lot of doubts. So in the end it’s a difficult take and either side – or both – may never take the PRC seriously…

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