歷史最後會證明葉利欽是對的

吾友林忌在他博客上指,葉利欽在瓦解蘇聯上所犯的錯誤,這點我不多講。但葉利欽無法阻止他身邊那班賊,大搞國有資產轉移,也是很有問題。但一如我們評價蔣介石時,也要看回他的時代背景。評價葉利欽,查實也要看回當時的背景。

像蘇聯瓦解,查實這是斯大林闖下來的大禍,列寧在建立蘇聯時,查實在設計上有一定聯邦制,而列寧心狠手辣也好,他還算個真的共產黨人(否則他不會瀟灑得讓芬蘭獨立,你試下在中國咁做)。但斯大林完全是一個沙皇,他要把所有權力一把抓,聯邦制的設計被他搞得名存實亡,人人怨恨時,只要極權統治有點鬆口就會蘇聯瓦解,阻也阻不了。

葉利欽名留青史,較早前大家看到是他在人權自由上的貢獻(看今期《亞洲週刊》白嗣宏的文章,評價堪稱公允)。但真的貢獻,我看是激進的休克療法。話雖有一幫人趁休克時搏懵,但在休克療法時,你搏到國有資產亦非保證發達,也是一場賭博。他寧可全民賭一鋪,但用全民意志去克服蘇聯遺留的制度性問題,過了危險時期便一帆風順,剛好遇上油價上升的好運氣,結果俄國現在很成功。

現時中國的摸著石頭過河,反而危機四伏,因為現時那堆既得利益者,不是像葉利欽般,自己參與賭身家遊戲去協助改革,而是漸漸養成一頭尾大不掉的怪物。 這頭怪物,不是中央政府有十足把握控制住,抽緊銀根抽極都控制不了股市熱浪,以及房地產熱,大家應該料到遲早要黎鋪勁。俄國葉利欽當年黎鋪勁,佢一個人走上坦克車都未搞出內戰。但依家中國黎鋪勁,你估下點?

幾年前中國人還嘲笑俄國,在葉利欽離世時,應當輪到佢老哥在天堂,嘲笑那些當年嘲笑他的中國人。

3 thoughts on “歷史最後會證明葉利欽是對的

  1. 依家中國有好多唔穩定期ge因素,其實我自己好怕中國會有一日再內亂。d人成日話中共唔同以前,但係政治安d野邊有話一定。
    以前都話有英國人睇住,d火唔會燒到去香港。而家中國有事,到時火燒連環船,英國 ge “firewall”又無埋,香港等死!!

  2. Yeltsin大刀闊斧除掉蘇聯制度性的後遺症,固然值得一讚,但他上台後其實都係專政,都係集大權於一身,都係鎮壓異己,此人其實沒甚麼值得我們認同

  3. In addition Mr Lam overlooked the fact that the likes of the Ukraine, Belarus, Caucasian republics, and Central Asian countries were all independent for a time after the 1917 October Revolution and it was the Red Army that took over these regions and resubjuated them to Russian domination over the following few years. Just look at the number of Ukrainian descents in midwestern United States and Western Canada today – they are the descendents of refugees which fled the homeland during that turbulent period. Culturally Ukraine and Belarus are more influenced by the European countries than Russia. In fact these countries did not enter the union with Russia voluntarily if you read several literatures on modern Societ history, whether popuilar history works or academic publications.

    Also, the European Union itself is not a nation state (even though plenty of Eurocrats like d’Estaing want to make it so) but rather like a supernational organization. And when you look at this, dioesn’t it look more like the modern CIS?

    In other words, we can conclude that the dissolution of the Soviet Union is perhaps more a blessing than a mistake.

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